How to Prepare for Peak Season: Holiday Season Logistics 2025

As festive lights are about to appear on storefronts, logistics and supply chain professionals worldwide are bracing for the busiest period of the year. Between Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas, Hanukkah, Singles’ Day, and other regional celebrations, this is the time when operational excellence truly defines success. In this blog, we review last year’s figures, examine key challenges, and share strategies for the upcoming holiday season.

A Look Back at the 2024 Holiday Season

The 2024 holiday season broke records across nearly every major market, with global online retail sales reaching $1.2 trillion (an increase of around 3% year on year). In the United States, consumers spent a record $282 billion online, while total retail sales (online and in-store) reached $994.1 billion, marking a 4% rise from 2023. The United Kingdom saw digital spending of £25.8 billion during November–December 2024, an increase of 5.9% year on year.

On the logistics and supply side, around 15% of U.S. shipments were delayed, prompting many retailers to expand buffer inventories, prioritise AI-driven demand forecasting, and enhance supply chain visibility. It is also worth noting that disruptions in the Panama and Suez Canals, alongside major port strikes in the U.S. and Canada, significantly affected supply chain performance during the peak season.

Why the Holiday Season Is So Challenging

The “golden quarter” (October–December) can account for up to 40% of annual revenue for many retailers, making logistics performance absolutely business-critical. According to Salesforce, digital sales in the upcoming holiday season (November and December) are expected to reach an unprecedented $1.25 trillion globally, up by around 4% year on year.

Despite such optimism, the retail sector faces mounting pressure to deliver amid rising costs, uneven AI adoption, economic uncertainty, new tariffs, and other geopolitical factors. Forecasting demand is also becoming more complex as shoppers spread purchases across Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the weeks leading up to Christmas.

Additional challenges for logistics include:

• Demand volatility: Consumers shop earlier and across multiple channels, making forecasting more difficult.

  
  

• Inventory pressure: Both stockouts and overstocks hit margins, so achieving balance demands real-time visibility.

  
  

• Shipping congestion: Carriers reach peak capacity, spot rates surge, and transit times fluctuate, often worsened by trade disputes, strikes, or natural disasters.

  
  

• Returns tsunami: Between 20 and 30% of holiday e-commerce orders are returned, creating a “reverse logistics hangover” each January.

  
  

• Sustainability expectations: More consumers now expect eco-friendly packaging and carbon-neutral delivery, requiring additional investment.

Proven Strategies to Prepare for the Holiday Season

While the challenges may seem daunting, there are proven strategies and tactics that can help logistics professionals prepare and thrive during the festive rush.

1. Forecast with Precision (and Flexibility)

Combine historical data (2022–2024) with real-time analytics to identify demand peaks by region and category. Use AI-driven forecasting to simulate multiple demand scenarios, including early shopping or sudden slowdowns.

2. Strengthen Supplier & Carrier Relationships

Secure carrier capacity as early as possible, negotiating holiday surcharges and contingency agreements in advance. Maintain tiered supplier networks, both primary and backup vendors, to protect against disruption.

3. Build Agile Inventory Networks

Consider regional or micro-fulfilment centres (MFCs) to reduce last-mile strain. Apply dynamic replenishment (moving inventory based on live demand signals). Explore 3PL (third-party) or 4PL (fourth-party) partnerships to expand flexibility without adding permanent infrastructure.

4. Optimise the Last Mile

Offer delivery options such as Click & Collect, locker pickup, and scheduled delivery. Use route optimisation tools and load-balancing algorithms to reduce fuel costs and delivery times. Leverage crowdshipping or on-demand courier networks in dense urban areas.

5. Prepare for Returns

Streamline reverse logistics: clear return policies, easy labels, and dedicated sorting zones. Implement returnless refunds for low-value items to reduce handling costs. Use data from returns to refine 2025 inventory planning.

6. Invest in Visibility and Data Integration

Integrate the Transportation Management System (TMS), Warehouse Management System (WMS), and Order Management System (OMS) for end-to-end visibility. Deploy a control tower dashboard to monitor KPIs like On-Time-In-Full (OTIF) and delivery exceptions in real time.

Holiday Season 2025: In It To Win It

The holiday season is when logistics transforms into magic as thousands of moving parts work together to deliver millions of moments. Yet behind that magic lies strategy, planning, and precision. In 2025, the winners will be those who start early, think digitally, and design their supply chains for speed, flexibility, and sustainability. Before the rush begins, ask yourself: is your logistics operation ready for the holidays?

If you’re looking for more advice on preparing for the busiest season of the year, check out our Black Friday preparation guide, which includes practical tips and an actionable checklist.

Finally, remember that success often depends on the right partner. KATA Global Logistics provides tailored solutions designed to adapt to shifting market conditions. With a focus on efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and customer satisfaction, KATA helps businesses manage the complexities of the holiday season seamlessly.

Contact KATA today to learn how to optimise your logistics strategy and make this holiday season your most successful yet.